International Conference  

Titel: “Exchange Rates, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in Emerging Markets and Developing Countries”
Date:
October 13th/14th 2014
Paper Submission Deadline: August 20th 2014
Participant Registration: September 14th 2014, registration form
Venue: Albertina, University Leipzig
Organizers: Prof. Dr. Ansgar Belke (University of Duisburg-Essen, Monetary Experts Panel European Parliament, IZA Bonn) and Prof. Dr. Gunther Schnabl 
(Institute for Economic Policy, University of Leipzig)

Topic and Aim

Given the unprecedented monetary expansion in the large industrialized countries and the possible exit from low interest rate policies and quantitative easing, new macroeconomic challenges in emerging markets and developing countries have emerged. Because of the crucial role of exchange rate stability for macroeconomic and financial stability in emerging market economies and developing countries – including the feedback effects of emerging market crisis on financial stability in the industrialized countries – exchange rate and monetary policies in emerging market economies have gained rising attention among scholars and policy makers.

We aim to provide new academic insights on the role of the exchange rate regime on the macroeconomic and financial stability in emerging markets and developing countries. The organizers of the conference are Ansgar Belke (University of Duisburg-Essen, Monetary Experts Panel European Parliament, IZA Bonn) and Gunther Schnabl (University of Leipzig, Institute for Economic Policy).

Keynote Speakers

Keynote speakers are Menzie Chinn (University of Wisconsin) and Jonathan Ostry (International Monetary Fund).

Official Group Photo of the Conference

                        

Program

The program as PDF

Monday 13th October 2014

9.00 – 9.15

Opening of the conference

Ansgar Belke (University of Duisburg-Essen)

Gunther Schnabl (University of Leipzig)

9.15 - 10.45

Session 1a: Foreign Exchange Intervention

Session leader: Maurizio Habib

Renu Kohli (National Council for Applied Economic Research)

“Capital Flows and Exchange Rate Volatility - How Crucial Are Reserves?”

Malgorzata Sulimierska (University of Sussex)

“Capital Account Liberalization, Investment and Productivity - Sector Level Analysis”

 

Maurizio Habib, E. Mileva, L. Stracca (All: European Central Bank)

“Can You Devalue Your Way to Lasting Growth?”

09.15 - 10.45

Session 1b: Exchange Rate Exposure

Session leader: Iulian Ihnatov

Bo Tang (Both: University of Sheffield)

"Exchange Rate Exposure of Chinese Firms at the Industry and Firm Level”

Justine Pedrono (Aix-Marseille School of Economics)

"Banking Leverage with Two Funding Currencies”

Iulian Ihnatov, O. Stoica (Both: Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iași)

“Exchange Rate Regimes and External Financial Stability”

10.45 - 11.15

Coffee break

11.15 - 12.45

Session 2a: Central Banking, Public Debt and Financial Stability

Session leader: Romain Baeriswyl

 

Bettina Fincke, A. Greiner (Both: Bielefeld University)

“Public Debt and Economic Growth in Emerging Market Economies”

 

Philipp Wegmüller (University of Bern)

“Government Size and the Role of the Exchange Rate Regime for Macroeconomic Stability - Was Anna Schwartz Right?”

 

Romain Baeriswyl (Swiss National Bank)

“Intertemporal Discoordination in the 100 Percent Reserve Banking System”

11.15 - 12.45

Session 2b: Managing Exchange Rate Fluctuations

Session leader: Martin Siddiqui

Andrej Drygalla (Halle Institute for Economic Research)

“Switching to Exchange Rate Flexibility? The Case of Central and Eastern European Inflation Targeters”

Konstantin Kuck, R. Maderitsch (Both: University of Hohenheim)

“High-Frequency Dynamics of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate - Evidence from Quantile Autoregression”

Martin Siddiqui, J. Fidrmuc (Both: Zeppelin University)

“The Euro and the Exchange Rate Policy in China after the Financial Crisis - Evidence from Time-Varying Exchange Rate Basket”

12.45 - 14.00

Lunch (Café KOWALSKI, Ferdinand-Rhode-Straße 12, 04107 Leipzig)

14.00 - 15.30

Session 3a: Monetary Policy in the Face of Exchange Rate Shocks

Session leader: Ansgar Belke

 

Łukasz Goczek, D. Mycielska (Both: University of Warsaw)

“The Lack of Monetary Policy Independence in Small Open Economies with Inflation Targeting”

 

Lukas Vogel (European Commission), S. Hohberger, B. Herz (Both: University of Bayreuth)

“Alternative Monetary Policy Targets - A Model-Based Comparison”

 

Ansgar Belke, J. Beckmann, R. Czudaj (All: University of Duisburg-Essen)

“Productivity Shocks and Effective Exchange Rates”

14.00 - 15.30

Session 3b: Determinants of Real Exchange Rates

Session leader: Axel Löffler

Zuzana Brixiová, M. Ncube (Both: African Development Bank)

"The Real Exchange Rate and Growth in Zimbabwe - Does the Currency Regime Matter?“

Vahagn Galstyan (Trinity College Dublin), A. Velic (Dublin Institute of Technology)

“Debt and Asymmetric Real Exchange Rate Adjustment in Emerging Markets”

Axel Löffler (Deutsche Bundesbank)

“Reserve Requirements and Real Exchange Rate Misalignments”

15.30 - 16.00

Coffee break

16.00 - 17.00

Keynote speaker 1: Menzie Chinn (University of Wisconsin)

“The Trilemma - Insights and Limitations”

17.00 - 17.30

Break

17.30 - 19.00

Session 4a: Challenges of East Asian Monetary Integration

Session leader: Ulrich Volz

 

Naoyuki Yoshino (Asian Development Bank Institute), S. Kaji (Keio University), A. Tamon (IMF)

“Dynamic Adjustment to the Basket-Peg or Floating in East Asian Countries after China's Transition in Exchange Rate Regime”

Eiji Ogawa, Z. Wang (Both: Hitotsubashi University)

“How Did the Global Financial Crisis Misalign East Asian Currencies?”

Ulrich Volz (School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London)

“The Future of Inflation Targeting in East Asia”

17.30 - 19.00

Session 4b: Costs and Benefits of a Monetary Union

Session leader: Gregorz Wesołowski

Aram Belhadj (University of Orléans)

Monetary Integration in the Presence of Heterogeneous Countries - How Much Does It Cost for Maghreb Countries?”

Lacina Balma (Montesquieu University Bordeaux IV)

“Foreign Currency Debt and Exchange Rate Regimes in the Prospective Monetary Union of the ECOWAS Countries”

Gregorz Wesołowski, M. Brzoza-Brzezina, K. Makarski (All: National Bank of Poland)

“Would it Have Paid to be in the Eurozone?”

Starting 20.00

Conference dinner (STELZENHAUS, Weißenfelser Straße 65h, 04229 Leipzig)

Tuesday 14th October 2014

09.00 - 10.30

Session 5a: The Impossible Trinity Revisited

Session leader: Benjamin Carton

 

Georgios Georgiadis, A. Mehl (Both European Central Bank)

“Trilemma, not Dilemma - Financial Globalisation and Monetary Policy Effectiveness”

 

Andreas Steiner (University of Osnabrück)

“Central Banks and Macroeconomic Policy Choices - Relaxing the Trilemma”

Benjamin Carton (CEPREMAP, Germany)

“The Impossible Trinity Revisited - An Application to China”

09.00 - 10.30

Session 5b: US Monetary Policy and Exchanges Rates in Emerging Markets

Session leader: Galina Kolev


Alexander Erler, S. Sirries, C. Bauer, B. Herz (All: University of Bayreuth)

“Central Banks’ Management in Times of Exchange Market Pressure - New Evidence from Treatment-Effects Estimations”

Chin-Yoong Wong, Y. Eng (Both: Tunku Abdul Rahman University) 

“Accounting for Asymmetric Growth Effect of Capital Flows in a Model with Nonlinear Credit Constraint - Implications for Prudential Capital Control"

 

Galina Kolev (Cologne Institute for Economic Research)

“Fed or Fundamentals - What Drives Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies?”

10.30 - 11.00

Coffee break

11.00 - 12.00

Keynote speaker 2: Jonathan Ostry (IMF)

“Economic and Financial Stability in a World of Volatile Capital Flows”

12.00 - 13.30

Lunch (Catering)

13.30 - 15.00

Session 6a: Challenges to the International Monetary System

Session leader: Barbara Fritz

 

Andreas Hoffmann, B. Urbansky (Both: University of Leipzig)

“Institutional Change, the World Monetary and Financial Order and Financial Crises”

Gunther Schnabl (University of Leipzig), P. Duarte (New York University) 

“Exchange Rate Adjustment, Macroeconomic Policy Adjustment and Current Account Imbalances in Emerging Markets”

 

Barbara Fritz (Freie Universität Berlin), D. M. Prates (University of Campinas), L. F. de Paula (University of the State of Rio de Janeiro)

“Keynes at the Periphery - Currency Hierarchy and Challenges for Economic Policy in Emerging Economies”

13.30 - 15.00

Session 6b: Investment Decisions and Financial Stability

Session leader: Dirk Baur

Hibiki Ichiue, L. Brandao-Marques, G. Gelos, H. Oura (All: IMF)

“Changes in the Global Investor Base and the Stability of Portfolio Flows to Emerging Market Economies”

Ursula Vogel (Deutsche Bundesbank)

“Foreign Banks and Financial Stability - Evidence and Policy Challenges for Emerging Markets”

Dirk Baur (Kühne Logistics University), I. Miyakawa (University of Technology, Sydney) 

“International Investors, Exchange Rates and Equity Prices”

Starting 15.00

Closing remarks by Ansgar Belke and Gunther Schnabl

Starting 16.00

Johann Sebastian Bach-themed city tour (please register via email until the 8th of October)

Stiftung Geld und Währung

The conference is supported by “Stiftung Geld und Währung”. Special slots will be given to Ph.D. students to present their research. Funding of travel and accommodation can be provided for single speakers upon application.

Special Issues

The best and most innovative papers will be published in special issues of the Review of Development Economics and Credit and Capital Markets:

                                              

Participation of Observers

Observers are welcome. The registration fee for non-presenting observers is 200€ (covering the conference dinner etc.). Reservation for accommodation is to be made by the non-presenting participant. The deadline for registration is October 1st 2014. Please send the registration form to exchangerate(at)wifa.uni-leipzig.de.

Call for Papers

Papers should be submitted until August 20, 2014 to Björn Urbansky (exchangerate(at)wifa.uni-leipzig.de). Please indicate, if funding is required. Notifications will be made until August 30, 2014.

Contributions should cover one of the following fields:

  • exchange rate regime and financial stability
  • sterilization and financial stability
  • the feasibility of inflation targeting and flexible exchange rate strategies in a world of abundant global liquidity
  • institutional changes in the world monetary system
  • issues of euro area enlargement
  • internationalization of the Chinese renminbi
  • currency basket strategies
  • currency crisis and early warning systems
  • competitive depreciations and competitive interest rate cuts
  • exchange rate related issues of financial repression
  • the political economy of capital controls
  • frontiers in theoretical and empirical exchange rate modeling.

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letzte Änderung: 05.10.2016 

Organiser

Funding