Hauptspalte
Master of Intern. Energy Economics & Business Admin.
International Financial Relations
Instructor: Prof. Dr. Gunther Schnabl
Date: Mittwoch, 9.15 - 10.45 Uhr
Start: 13.10.2011
Language: English
Place: SR 3
Grading: Exam
Contents
Oil and gas are mainly produced in emerging market economies such as Russia. In particular oil is traded on world spot and futures markets in US dollars. For this reason the exchange rate of oil and gas producing countries’ currencies has a crucial impact on government revenues, macroeconomic stability and growth. This is acknowledged by policy makers of oil and gas exporting countries by stabilizing exchange rates against the US dollar. The dollar pegs, however, make oil and gas exporting countries vulnerable to macroeconomic policy decisions in the US. The lecture explains the macroeconomic development of oil and gas exporting countries such as Russia by analyzing the working mechanism of currency markets and the determinants of exchange rate movements (lectures 1 to 5). The lectures analyses crucial economic policy issues of oil and gas exporting countries such as current account imbalances (lecture 7), oil bill recycling, sterilization and Dutch disease (lecture 8), issues of oil and gas price driven economic development (lecture 10), and the threat of crisis (lecture 11). The options for the exchange rate systems of oil and gas exporting countries are discussed in lectures 12 and 13.
Slides
0. | Introduction (15:15 - 16:45, SR 6) | 12.10.2011 |
1. | Currency Markets (17:15 - 18:45, SR 6) | 12.10.2011 |
2. | Choice of Exchange Rate Regime | 26.10.2011 |
3. | Interest Rate Parity and Purchasing Power Parity | 02.11.2011 |
4. | Other Exchange Rate Models (15.15 - 16.45, SR 6) | 02.11.2011 |
5. | Balassa Samuelson-Effect | 09.11.2011 |
6. | Monetary and Fiscal Policies in an Open Economy | 23.11.2011 |
7. | Determinants of the Current Account and the Balance of Payments | 30.11.2011 |
8. | Guest Speaker: Thomas Mayer (Chefvolkswirt; Deutsche Bank), "Von der Kreditblase zur Staatsschuldenkrise" (Seminarraum 2/13:15 - 14:45 Uhr) | 02.12.2011 |
9. | Oil Bill Recycling, Sterilisation and Dutch Disease | 07.12.2011 |
10. | Capital Flows, Growth and Economic Development | 14.12.2011 |
11. | Credibility and Currency Crisis | 21.12.2011 |
12. | Gold Standard, Bretton Woods System, Currency Boards | 11.01.2012 |
13. | Currency Baskets | 18.01.2012 |
14. | Questions and Answers | 25.01.2012 |
Written Examination (SR 3, 9.00 - 10.00) | 13.02.2012 |
References
The readings are provided on the lecture slides. Students are encouraged to follow the ongoing debate on international finance and exchange rate policies as reported in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Financial Times (German or English edition), the Economist (for weekly updates) or Auszüge aus Presseartikeln of Deutsche Bundesbank (free subscription available at the Pressezentrum of Deutsche Bundesbank).
Basic Readings
Copeland, Laurence (2008): Exchange Rates and International Finance, Harlow.
De Grauwe, Paul (1996): International Money, Oxford.
Eichengreen, Barry (1996): Globalizing Capital: A History of the International Monetary System, Princeton.
Kindleberger, Charles (2000): Manias, Panics and Crashes, New York.
McKinnon, Ronald (1997): The Rules of the Game: International Money and Exchange Rates, Cambridge (Massachusetts).